Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

Republican Nomination

• Mitt Romney 18% [20%] {25%}
• Mike Huckabee 17% [16%] {16%}
• Donald Trump 13%
• Rudy Giuliani 9%
• Sarah Palin 8% [13%] {18%}
• Ron Paul 7%
• Newt Gingrich 4% [10%] {16%}
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2% [4%] {4%}
• Tim Pawlenty 2% [2%] {6%}
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Herman Cain 2%
• Haley Barbour 1% [1%] {2%}
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Undecided 11% [14%] {13%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 19%
• Mike Huckabee 19%
• Rudy Giuliani 11%
• Donald Trump 11%
• Sarah Palin 8%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Newt Gingrich 3%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Herman Cain 1%
• Haley Barbour 1%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Undecided 12%

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Donald Trump 18%
• Mitt Romney 15%
• Mike Huckabee 14%
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Rudy Giuliani 6%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Michele Bachmann 3%
• Herman Cain 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Haley Barbour 1%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Undecided 8%

General Election

• Barack Obama 46% [51%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 45% [38%] (46%)

• Barack Obama 48% [50%] (47%)
• Mike Huckabee 43% [38%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 54%
• Donald Trump 38%

• Barack Obama 56% [56%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 34% [30%] (40%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 80% [87%] (81%)
• Mitt Romney 13% [8%] (11%)

• Barack Obama 85% [88%] (83%)
• Mike Huckabee 11% [7%] (10%)

• Barack Obama 89%
• Donald Trump 8%

• Barack Obama 87% [89%] (85%)
• Sarah Palin 6% [6%] (11%)

Among Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 89% [81%] (86%)
• Barack Obama 7% [8%] (7%)

• Mitt Romney 83% [81%] (87%)
• Barack Obama 10% [10%] (6%)

• Donald Trump 75%
• Barack Obama 18%

• Sarah Palin 69% [66%] (78%)
• Barack Obama 20% [16%] (12%)

Among Independents

• Mike Huckabee 44% [40%] (40%)
• Barack Obama 41% [45%] (42%)

• Mitt Romney 45% [37%] (47%)
• Barack Obama 42% [47%] (39%)

• Barack Obama 46%
• Donald Trump 42%

• Barack Obama 52% [57%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 35% [29%] (35%)

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 54% [57%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 35% [30%] (38%)

• Barack Obama 59% [56%] (55%)
• Mike Huckabee 34% [29%] (31%)

• Barack Obama 65%
• Donald Trump 26%

• Barack Obama 67% [69%] (68%)
• Sarah Palin 23% [17%] (26%)

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 70% [68%] (67%)
• Barack Obama 23% [23%] (25%)

• Mitt Romney 67% [65%] (67%)
• Barack Obama 23% [24%] (23%)

• Donald Trump 65%
• Barack Obama 28%

• Sarah Palin 56% [58%] (64%)
• Barack Obama 31% [28%] (26%)

Among Liberals

• Barack Obama 77% [85%] (78%)
• Mitt Romney 19% [8%] (13%)

• Barack Obama 76% [85%] (80%)
• Mike Huckabee 14% [7%] (10%)

• Barack Obama 79%
• Donald Trump 16%

• Barack Obama 82% [85%] (83%)
• Sarah Palin 14% [7%] (13%)

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 48% [41%] (42%)
• Barack Obama 43% [47%] (49%)

• Barack Obama 50% [47%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 44% [41%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 52%
• Donald Trump 40%

• Barack Obama 57% [52%] (53%)
• Sarah Palin 34% [35%] (40%)

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 45% [36%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 42% [54%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 53% [52%] (44%)
• Mike Huckabee 37% [36%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 55%
• Donald Trump 36%

• Barack Obama 55% [60%] (50%)
• Sarah Palin 34% [27%] (39%)

Northeast

• Barack Obama 51% [54%] (49%)
• Mitt Romney 38% [30%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 49% [53%] (53%)
• Mike Huckabee 35% [30%] (37%)

• Barack Obama 60%
• Donald Trump 33%

• Barack Obama 61% [59%] (58%)
• Sarah Palin 26% [22%] (36%)

Midwest

• Donald Trump 48%
• Barack Obama 45%

• Mitt Romney 48% [38%] (43%)
• Barack Obama 47% [54%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 45% [55%] (47%)
• Mike Huckabee 45% [38%] (42%)

• Barack Obama 55% [63%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 41% [27%] (39%)

South

• Mitt Romney 49% [40%] (53%)
• Barack Obama 42% [49%] (36%)

• Barack Obama 48% [46%] (42%)
• Mike Huckabee 48% [43%] (49%)

• Barack Obama 49% [52%] (45%)
• Sarah Palin 37% [35%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 53%
• Donald Trump 38%

West

• Barack Obama 49% [48%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 41% [42%] (38%)

• Barack Obama 49% [47%] (48%)
• Mike Huckabee 40% [38%] (36%)

• Barack Obama 58%
• Donald Trump 32%

• Barack Obama 62% [54%] (58%)
• Sarah Palin 30% [32%] (32%)

College Graduate

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 40% 

• Barack Obama 54%
• Mike Huckabee 40%

• Barack Obama 57%
• Donald Trump 36%

• Barack Obama 61%
• Sarah Palin 28%

Not a College Graduate

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Barack Obama 42%

• Mike Huckabee 45%
• Barack Obama 43%

• Barack Obama 51%
• Donald Trump 40%

• Barack Obama 52%
• Sarah Palin 39%

Survey of 1,084 registered voters, including a subsample of 468 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, was conducted April 10-14, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points among all voters; ±4.5 percentage points among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. Party ID breakdown: 35% [35%] (37%) Democrat; 27% [28%] (28%) Republican; 36% [36%] (33%) Independent. Political ideology: 40% [42%] (46%) Conservative; 39% [34%] (34%) Moderate; 21% [23%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 6-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.