Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

• Mitt Romney 30% [21%] {21%} (19%)
• Sarah Palin 14% [10%] {12%} (14%)
• Herman Cain 12%
• Rick Perry 8%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Newt Gingrich 6% [11%] {13%} (10%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% [6%] {3%} (5%)
• Rick Santorum 4% [3%] {2%} (3%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Other (VOL) 1% [1%] {2%} (2%)
• None (VOL) 2% [4%] {4%} (6%)
• Not sure 8% [4%] {8%} (8%)

Let me read you a slightly shorter list of people who might seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president.  If you were voting today in the Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor?

• Mitt Romney 43% [40%]
• Ron Paul 11%
• Michele Bachmann 11% [11%]
• Rick Santorum 9%
• Newt Gingrich 8% [20%]
• Tim Pawlenty 7% [12%]
• Other (VOL) 0% [1%]
• None (VOL) 3% [6%]
• Not sure 8% [7%]

GENERAL ELECTION

• Barack Obama 49% {49%} [47%]
• Mitt Romney 43% {40%} [40%]

• Barack Obama 50% {50%}
• Tim Pawlenty 37% {31%}

If you learned that Mitt Romney opposes the current health care law signed into law by Barack Obama that institutes requiring nearly all Americans to either have or purchase health insurance, but as governor supported and signed into law a bill that had similar requirements for Massachusetts---would this make you more favorable about him, less favorable about him or would it not make a difference in your opinion of him one way or the other?

• More favorable 13%
• Less favorable 35%
• No difference 50%

How confident are you that Mitt Romney has the skills and ability necessary to be president?

• Extremely confident 9%
• Quite confident 15%
• Only somewhat confident 43%
• Not at all confident 22%

How confident are you that Tim Pawlenty has the skills and ability necessary to be president?

• Extremely confident 3%
• Quite confident 8%
• Only somewhat confident 33%
• Not at all confident 24%

How confident are you that Rick Santorum has the skills and ability necessary to be president?

• Extremely confident 2%
• Quite confident 5%
• Only somewhat confident 23%
• Not at all confident 30%

How confident are you that Michele Bachmann has the skills and ability necessary to be president?

• Extremely confident 3%
• Quite confident 6%
• Only somewhat confident 23%
• Not at all confident 37%

How confident are you that Newt Gingrich has the skills and ability necessary to be president?

• Extremely confident 4%
• Quite confident 9%
• Only somewhat confident 33%
• Not at all confident 45%

How confident are you that Sarah Palin has the skills and ability necessary to be president?

• Extremely confident 5%
• Quite confident 7%
• Only somewhat confident 25%
• Not at all confident 60%

Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement?

• Yes 26% [25%] {29%} (27%) [29%]
• No 63% [67%] {61%} (62%) [61%]

(Among Republicans Who Support the Tea Party) Which better describes you, a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or a Republican?

• Supporter of the Tea Party movement 40% [52%] {46%} (46%) [49%]
• Republican 45% [43%] {47%} (48%) [49%]

I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.

Barack Obama

• Very positive 27% [28%] {28%} (29%) [25%]
• Somewhat positive 22% [22%] {21%} (23%) [23%]
• Neutral 14% [14%] {15%} (15%) [14%]
• Somewhat negative 13% [13%] {15%} (14%) [14%]
• Very negative 24% [23%] {20%} (18%) [24%]

Chris Christie

• Very positive 10%
• Somewhat positive 13%
• Neutral 19%
• Somewhat negative 7%
• Very negative 7%
• Don't know name/Not sure 44%

Mitt Romney

• Very positive 7% {6%} [10%]
• Somewhat positive 20% {19%} [18%]
• Neutral 30% {30%} [30%]
• Somewhat negative 16% {13%} [10%]
• Very negative 10% {12%} [10%]

Paul Ryan

• Very positive 6%
• Somewhat positive 11%
• Neutral 19%
• Somewhat negative 8%
• Very negative 10%
• Don't know name/Not sure 46%

Tim Pawlenty

• Very positive 3% {3%}
• Somewhat positive 11% {7%}
• Neutral 25% {20%}
• Somewhat negative 9% {6%}
• Very negative 6% {3%}
• Don't know name/Not sure 46% {61%}

Jon Huntsman

• Very positive 1%
• Somewhat positive 6%
• Neutral 20%
• Somewhat negative 5%
• Very negative 4%
• Don't know name/Not sure 64%

Rick Perry

• Very positive 4%
• Somewhat positive 8%
• Neutral 18%
• Somewhat negative 6%
• Very negative 9%
• Don't know name/Not sure 55%

Newt Gingrich

• Very positive 3% [6%] {9%}
• Somewhat positive 13% [18%] {15%}
• Neutral 23% [24%] {27%}
• Somewhat negative 21% [15%] {16%}
• Very negative 27% [22%] {19%}

Sarah Palin

• Very positive 7% [9%] [13%] {14%}
• Somewhat positive 17% [16%] [15%] {16%}
• Neutral 19% [18%] [20%] {19%}
• Somewhat negative 16% [12%] [16%] {15%}
• Very negative 38% [41%] [34%] {33%}

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 49%
• Disapprove 46%

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

• Approve 41%
• Disapprove 54%

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy?

• Approve 50%
• Disapprove 44%

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the war in Afghanistan?

• Approve 54%
• Disapprove 39%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Libya?

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 36%

If President Obama runs for re-election in the year 2012, do you think you will probably vote for President Obama or probably vote for the Republican candidate?

• President Obama 45% [43%] {45%}
• Republican candidate 40% [38%] {40%}

I'm going to read you some positions that someone running for President could take. For each one, please tell me whether you would be more likely to vote for a candidate for President who takes this position, less likely to vote for this candidate, or would it not make a difference to you either way?

Supports a federal requirement for companies to reduce greenhouse gases

• More likely to vote 54%
• Less likely to vote 17%
• No difference either way 27%

Supports repealing the health care reform law

• More likely to vote 47%
• Less likely to vote 35%
• No difference either way 14%

Favors allowing undocumented immigrants who are already in the country to stay here if they pay a fine, learn English, and go to the back of the line behind legal immigrants in the application process to become an American citizen.

• More likely to vote 47%
• Less likely to vote 32%
• No difference either way 18%

Voted for the health care reform law

• More likely to vote 44%
• Less likely to vote 40%
• No difference either way 14%

Favors making abortion illegal, except in cases of rape, incest, or when the health of the mother is at risk

• More likely to vote 39%
• Less likely to vote 43%
• No difference either way 18%

Supports changing to Medicare for those under 55 to a system where people choose their insurance from a list of private health plans and the government pays a fixed amount, sometimes called a voucher, towards that cost

• More likely to vote 38%
• Less likely to vote 37%
• No difference either way 18%

Supports instituting an individual mandate requiring nearly all Americans to either have or purchase health insurance

• More likely to vote 31%
• Less likely to vote 50%
• No difference either way 17%

Favors adding an amendment to the Constitution that bans gay marriages

• More likely to vote 24%
• Less likely to vote 45%
• No difference either way 29%

Supports phasing out Social Security and instead supports allowing workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market

• More likely to vote 23%
• Less likely to vote 55%
• No difference either way 18%

Do you think the economic stimulus legislation that was passed in 2009 is already helping improve the economy, will help improve the economy in the future, or will it not help improve the economy?

• Already helping improve the economy 19%
• Will help improve the economy in the future 15%
• Will not help improve the economy 45%

How responsible is President Obama and his administration’s policies for the country’s current economic conditions?

• Solely responsible 10%
• Mainly responsible 24%
• Only somewhat responsible 48%
• Not really responsible 16%

How responsible is former President George W. Bush and his administration’s policies for the country’s current economic conditions?

• Solely responsible 14%
• Mainly responsible 33%
• Only somewhat responsible 43%
• Not really responsible 9%

When you think about the current economic conditions, do you feel that this is a situation that Barack Obama has inherited or is this a situation his policies are mostly responsible for?

• Situation Obama inherited 62%
• Situation Obama's policies mostly responsible for 25%

Which of the following two statements comes closer to your point of view?

Statement A: The president and the Congress should worry more about boosting the economy even though it may mean larger budget deficits now and in the future.
Statement B: The president and the Congress should worry more about keeping the budget deficit down, even though it may mean it will take longer for the economy to recover

• Statement A/Worry more about boosting the economy 31%
• Statement B/Worry more about keeping budget deficit down 63%

Looking at how it has worked out today, do you think the decision for the government to provide loans and financial assistance to Chrysler and GM was a good decision, a bad decision, or is it too early to tell?

• Good decision 31%
• Bad decision 32%
• Too early to tell 34%

If federal government spending is cut, do you think this will help the economic recovery, hurt the economic recovery, or not affect the economic recovery either way?

• Help recovery 37%
• Hurt recovery 31%
• Not affect 23%

Now, I’m going to read you two statements about the debt ceiling and please tell me which comes closer to your point of view. 


Some people say do not raise the debt ceiling because doing so will make it easier to increase spending and harder to reduce the deficit, and will increase the debt held by other countries and passed on to the next generation.…while other people say raise the debt ceiling because failing to do so could stop the government from meeting its obligations, including payments to those on Social Security and in the military, and cause a shock to the economy. Efforts to control debt should be comprehensive and long-term rather than artificial and short-term.

• Raise debt ceiling 46%
• Do not raise debt ceiling 42%

Do you feel that Medicare needs a complete overhaul, that it needs major changes, that it needs minor modifications, or do you think it is pretty much okay the way it is?

• Complete overhaul 15% [16%]
• Major changes 28% [28%]
• Minor modifications 37% [38%]
• Pretty much OK the way it is 15% [15%]

The President has announced that he plans to begin reducing American troop levels in Afghanistan in July 2011. Which of these statements comes closest to your point of view on this?

Statement A: The troops should be removed now.
Statement B: The troops should be removed on the timetable of July 2011.
Statement C: The troops should be removed depending upon the military conditions in July 2011.
Statement D: The troops should only be removed after the Afghan government has stabilized and
the Taliban has been defeated.

• A/Removed now 23% (23%)
• B/Removed on this timetable 24% (21%)
• C/Removed depending on military conditions 37% (34%)
• D/Removed after gov’t stabilized and Taliban defeated 15% (21%)

Do you think United States should or should not remain engaged in the military operations conducted by NATO in Libya until President Muammar Gaddafi has been removed from power?

• U.S. should remain engaged 51%
• U.S. should NOT remain engaged 36%

Survey of 1,000 adults, including a subsample of registered Republican primary voters, was conducted June 9-13, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among adults. Political ideology: Very liberal 7% [6%] {8%} (7%); Somewhat liberal 15% [15%] {16%} (15%); Moderate 37% [40%] {38%} (41%); Somewhat conservative 24% [23%] {21%} (20%); Very conservative 15% [14%] {15%} (14%).  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 24-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 13-17, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September, 2010 are in curly brackets.