Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

Republican Nomination

• Mitt Romney 21% {19%} (18%) [20%] {25%}
• Rick Perry 18% {13%}
• Sarah Palin 10% {11%} (8%) [13%] {18%}
• Rudy Giuliani 9% {13%} (9%)
• Michele Bachmann 8% {8%} (3%)
• Herman Cain 6% {5%} (2%)
• Ron Paul 3% {5%} (7%)
• Rick Santorum 3% {1%} (2%)
• Newt Gingrich 2% {2%} (4%) [10%] {16%}
• Tim Pawlenty 2% {5%} (2%) [2%] {6%}
• Gary Johnson 2% {0%}
• Buddy Roemer 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1% {2%} (1%)
• Fred Karger 0% {0%}
• Undecided 14% {15%} (11%) [14%] {13%}

General Election

• Barack Obama 48% {48%}
• Rudy Giuliani 43% {41%}

• Barack Obama 46% {46%} (46%) [51%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 41% {42%} (45%) [38%] (46%)

• Barack Obama 49% {47%}
• Tim Pawlenty 36% {33%}

• Barack Obama 52% {49%}
• Michele Bachmann 35% {37%}

• Barack Obama 52% {48%}
• Rick Perry 33% {39%}

• Barack Obama 56% {56%} (56%) [56%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 35% {30%} (34%) [30%] (40%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 83% {79%}
• Rudy Giuliani 13% {14%}

• Barack Obama 84% {87%} (80%) [87%] (81%)
• Mitt Romney 13% {6%} (13%) [8%] (11%)

• Barack Obama 86% {86%} (87%) [89%] (85%)
• Sarah Palin 11% {10%} (6%) [6%] (11%)

• Barack Obama 80% {77%}
• Tim Pawlenty 9% {11%}

• Barack Obama 84% {89%}
• Michele Bachmann 10% {2%}

• Barack Obama 84% {88%}
• Rick Perry 10% {3%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 87% {86%} (83%) [81%] (87%)
• Barack Obama 5% {6%} (10%) [10%] (6%)

• Rudy Giuliani 77% {84%}
• Barack Obama 10% {12%}

• Sarah Palin 60% {66%} (69%) [66%] (78%)
• Barack Obama 23% {22%} (20%) [16%] (12%)

• Tim Pawlenty 72% {74%}
• Barack Obama 5% {11%}

• Michele Bachmann 73% {73%}
• Barack Obama 15% {9%}

• Rick Perry 74% {82%} 
• Barack Obama 10% {7%}

Among Independents

• Rudy Giuliani 50% {38%}
• Barack Obama 41% {43%}

• Barack Obama 41% {43%} (42%) [47%] (39%)
• Mitt Romney 35% {39%} (45%) [37%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 48% {52%} (52%) [57%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 42% {28%} (35%) [29%] (35%)

• Barack Obama 49% {46%}
• Tim Pawlenty 37% {28%}

• Barack Obama 46% {45%}
• Michele Bachmann 34% {39%}

• Barack Obama 49% {48%}
• Rick Perry 30% {35%}

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 55% {52%}
• Rudy Giuliani 36% {34%}

• Barack Obama 51% {60%} (54%) [57%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 30% {26%} (35%) [30%] (38%)

• Barack Obama 63% {63%} (67%) [69%] (68%)
• Sarah Palin 26% {19%} (23%) [17%] (26%)

• Barack Obama 55% {54%}
• Tim Pawlenty 28% {25%}

• Barack Obama 63% {61%}
• Michele Bachmann 19% {23%}

• Barack Obama 62% {62%}
• Rick Perry 19% {23%}

Among Conservatives

• Rudy Giuliani 68% {61%}
• Barack Obama 26% {28%}

• Mitt Romney 67% {75%} (67%) [65%] (67%)
• Barack Obama 28% {19%} (23%) [24%] (23%)

• Sarah Palin 64% {49%} (56%) [58%] (64%)
• Barack Obama 29% {36%} (31%) [28%] (26%)

• Tim Pawlenty 63% {51%}
• Barack Obama 25% {28%}

• Michele Bachmann 66% {65%}
• Barack Obama 28% {22%}

• Rick Perry 62% {70%} 
• Barack Obama 30% {22%}

Among Liberals

• Barack Obama 78% {78%} (77%) [85%] (78%)
• Mitt Romney 18% {19%} (19%) [8%] (13%)

• Barack Obama 77% {88%}
• Rudy Giuliani 14% {11%}

• Barack Obama 93% {89%} (82%) [85%] (83%)
• Sarah Palin 4% {10%} (14%) [7%] (13%)

• Barack Obama 85% {85%}
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {8%}

• Barack Obama 83% {80%}
• Michele Bachmann 13% {14%}

• Barack Obama 81% {80%}
• Rick Perry 14% {13%}

Among Men

• Rudy Giuliani 57% {41%}
• Barack Obama 35% {45%}

• Mitt Romney 46% {45%} (44%) [41%] (47%)
• Barack Obama 37% {40%} (50%) [47%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 46% {54%} (57%) [52%] (53%)
• Sarah Palin 45% {28%} (34%) [35%] (40%)

• Tim Pawlenty 48% {30%}
• Barack Obama 40% {44%}

• Barack Obama 47% {41%}
• Michele Bachmann 38% {40%}

• Barack Obama 48% {41%}
• Rick Perry 36% {45%}

Among Women

• Barack Obama 55% {52%} (42%) [54%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 36% {40%} (45%) [36%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 58% {50%}
• Rudy Giuliani 33% {40%}

• Barack Obama 64% {58%} (55%) [60%] (50%)
• Sarah Palin 28% {33%} (34%) [27%] (39%)

• Barack Obama 57% {51%}
• Tim Pawlenty 26% {35%}

• Barack Obama 57% {55%}
• Michele Bachmann 32% {35%}

• Barack Obama 57% {54%}
• Rick Perry 31% {35%}

Northeast

• Barack Obama 48% {57%} (51%) [54%] (49%)
• Mitt Romney 42% {28%} (38%) [30%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 56% {52%}
• Rudy Giuliani 30% {42%}

• Barack Obama 67% {56%} (61%) [59%] (58%)
• Sarah Palin 20% {32%} (26%) [22%] (36%)

• Barack Obama 62% {49%}
• Tim Pawlenty 22% {31%}

• Barack Obama 56% {58%}
• Michele Bachmann 29% {22%}

• Barack Obama 57% {57%}
• Rick Perry 23% {25%}

Midwest

• Rudy Giuliani 47% {42%}
• Barack Obama 43% {44%}

• Barack Obama 48% {43%} (47%) [54%] (47%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {45%} (48%) [38%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 53% {51%} (55%) [63%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 34% {28%} (41%) [27%] (39%)

• Tim Pawlenty 43% {32%}
• Barack Obama 36% {46%}

• Barack Obama 50% {44%}
• Michele Bachmann 36% {41%}

• Barack Obama 51% {44%}
• Rick Perry 37% {42%}

South

• Rudy Giuliani 47% {37%}
• Barack Obama 46% {44%}

• Barack Obama 47% {41%} (42%) [49%] (36%)
• Mitt Romney 43% {48%} (49%) [40%] (53%)

• Barack Obama 52% {57%} (49%) [52%] (45%)
• Sarah Palin 41% {30%} (37%) [35%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 51% {44%}
• Tim Pawlenty 37% {35%}

• Barack Obama 49% {41%}
• Michele Bachmann 41% {45%}

• Barack Obama 51% {42%}
• Rick Perry 39% {46%}

West

• Barack Obama 48% {54%}
• Rudy Giuliani 45% {44%}

• Barack Obama 42% {48%} (49%) [48%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 38% {44%} (41%) [42%] (38%)

• Barack Obama 55% {61%} (62%) [54%] (58%)
• Sarah Palin 41% {32%} (30%) [32%] (32%)

• Barack Obama 47% {55%}
• Tim Pawlenty 39% {30%}

• Barack Obama 57% {57%}
• Michele Bachmann 29% {33%}

• Barack Obama 50% {55%}
• Rick Perry 30% {38%}

College Graduate

• Barack Obama 52% {50%}
• Rudy Giuliani 44% {38%}

• Barack Obama 50% {50%} (52%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {42%} (40%) 

• Barack Obama 62% {57%} (61%)
• Sarah Palin 30% {27%} (28%)

• Barack Obama 50% {47%}
• Tim Pawlenty 38% {29%}

• Barack Obama 60% {50%}
• Michele Bachmann 29% {35%}

• Barack Obama 61% {56%}
• Rick Perry 26% {35%}

Not a College Graduate

• Barack Obama 45% {46%}
• Rudy Giuliani 44% {43%}

• Barack Obama 45% {43%} (42%)
• Mitt Romney 41% {43%} (48%)

• Barack Obama 52% {55%} (52%)
• Sarah Palin 38% {34%} (39%)

• Barack Obama 48% {48%}
• Tim Pawlenty 35% {36%}

• Barack Obama 49% {48%}
• Michele Bachmann 39% {40%}

• Barack Obama 49% {42%}
• Rick Perry 38% {43%}

Survey of 807 registered voters, including a subsample of 301 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, was conducted August 2-4, 2011. The margin of error is ± 3.5 percentage points among all voters; ± 6.0 percentage points among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. Party ID breakdown: 37% {34%} (35%) [35%] (37%) Democrat; 25% {27%} (27%) [28%] (28%) Republican; 37% {38%} (36%) [36%] (33%) Independent. Political ideology: 43% {36%} (39%) [34%] (34%) Moderate; 37% {43%} (40%) [42%] (46%) Conservative; 20% {21%} (21%) [23%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted June 15-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 6-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.

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