Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 45% {45%} [47%] (49%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [48%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {47%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (49%) {48%} [53%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 45% {45%} [45%] (42%) {42%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (46%) {43%} [42%] (46%) {42%} [44%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (40%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {40%} [35%] (39%)

• Barack Obama 49%
• Rick Perry 43%

• Barack Obama 50% {48%}
• Michele Bachmann 42% {41%}

• Barack Obama 49% {48%} [48%] (47%)
• Herman Cain 39% {36%} [38%] (29%)

• Barack Obama 53% {53%} [52%] (54%) {54%} [54%] (53%) {52%} [55%] (51%) {49%} [49%] (46%) {50%} [50%] (47%) {49%} [50%] (49%) {50%} [51%] (52%) {53%} [52%] (51%) {52%} [56%] (53%) <55%>
• Sarah Palin 40% {37%} [38%] (37%) {37%} [36%] (38%) {40%} [38%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (46%) {41%} [43%] (45%) {41%} [43%] (41%) {44%} [43%] (40%) {38%} [38%] (43%) {40%} [37%] (41%) <35%>

Among Independents

• Barack Obama 48% {37%} [52%] (45%) {40%} [46%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (43%) {41%} [41%] (35%) {33%} [41%] (40%) {38%} [38%] (37%) {47%} [44%] (41%) {46%} [41%] (42%) {35%} [55%] (52%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {46%} [35%] (39%) {36%} [36%] (36%) {39%} [46%] (43%) {38%} [40%] (48%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (44%) {37%} [42%] (40%) {35%} [41%] (43%) {42%} [30%] (35%)

• Barack Obama 56% {43%} [49%] (49%)
• Herman Cain 32% {38%} [28%] (23%)

• Barack Obama 56%
• Rick Perry 32%

• Barack Obama 57% {45%}
• Michele Bachmann 33% {39%}

• Barack Obama 59% {51%} [57%] (51%) {52%} [57%] (58%) {58%} [51%] (53%) {48%} [52%] (42%) {40%} [50%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (42%) {50%} [51%] (47%) {52%} [50%] (47%) {46%} [52%] (51%) <46%>
• Sarah Palin 30% {38%} [29%] (36%) {33%} [29%] (30%) {34%} [38%] (41%) {34%} [39%] (47%) {43%} [37%] (39%) {35%} [39%] (41%) {41%} [42%] (35%) {35%} [34%] (41%) {41%} [37%] (44%) <42%>

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 44% of the Independent vote (29% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Independent vote.

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 83% {83%} [86%] (77%) {81%} [81%] (77%) {77%} [78%] (87%) {82%} [80%] (82%) {79%} [78%] (82%) {80%} [80%] (77%) {78%} [83%] (77%) {72%} [74%] (71%) {74%} [66%] (71%)
• Barack Obama 5% {8%} [9%] (13%) {10%} [7%] (9%) {7%} [12%] (9%) {7%} [5%] (7%) {8%} [9%] (6%) {7%} [10%] (9%) {8%} [6%] (10%) {14%} [11%] (18%) {19%} [18%] (16%)

• Michele Bachmann 81% {79%}
• Barack Obama 9% {8%}

• Rick Perry 82%
• Barack Obama 10%

• Sarah Palin 78% {74%} [76%] (68%) {72%} [73%] (74%) {72%} [69%] (79%) {81%} [81%] (81%) {78%} [81%] (85%) {82%} [78%] (77%) {80%} [84%] (77%) {70%} [74%] (79%) {72%} [65%] (71%) <66%>
• Barack Obama 12% {13%} [12%] (19%) {18%} [15%] (13%) {12%} [20%] (13%) {11%} [7%] (9%) {12%} [12%] (8%) {10%} [14%] (14%) {12%} [7%] (15%) {18%} [15%] (14%) {18%} [27%] (21%) <17%>

• Herman Cain 75% {70%} [79%] (55%)
• Barack Obama 10% {10%} [8%] (10%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 90% of the Republican vote (32% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 93% of the Republican vote.

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 80% {80%} [78%] (84%) {83%} [83%] (82%) {82%} [86%] (83%) {82%} [83%] (80%) {82%} [80%] (86%) {76%} [78%] (82%) {80%} [86%] (82%) {78%} [81%] (77%) {79%} [81%] (77%)
• Mitt Romney 13% {13%} [14%] (12%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {10%} [8%] (12%) {12%} [9%] (14%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {16%} [13%] (7%) {14%} [11%] (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {13%} [11%] (14%)

• Barack Obama 81%
• Rick Perry 13%

• Barack Obama 83% {82%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% {11%}

• Barack Obama 82% {83%} [82%] (80%)
• Herman Cain 10% {8%} [9%] (8%)

• Barack Obama 87% {87%} [84%] (88%) {87%} [89%] (86%) {86%} [89%] (84%) {83%} [85%] (81%) {86%} [83%] (87%) {78%} [81%] (88%) {82%} [89%] (86%) {83%} [84%] (83%) {82%} [83%] (81%) <89%>
• Sarah Palin 9% {8%} [10%] (9%) {10%} [8%] (10%) {13%} [9%] (10%) {14%} [11%] (14%) {11%} [15%] (10%) {14%} [15%] (8%) {15%} [10%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (15%) {15%} [14%] (15%) <7%>

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 10% of the Democratic vote (39% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 11% of the Democratic vote.

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 59% {54%} [60%] (59%) {60%} [58%] (57%) {63%} [62%] (60%) {59%} [55%] (55%) {58%} [59%] (62%) {55%} [54%] (58%) {65%} [59%] (60%) {57%} [57%] (56%) {57%} [64%] (63%)
• Mitt Romney 24% {33%} [30%] (28%) {27%} [26%] (28%) {21%} [28%] (33%) {31%} [29%] (33%) {26%} [30%] (27%) {31%} [31%] (26%) {24%} [31%] (28%) {30%} [30%] (32%) {28%} [24%] (26%)

• Barack Obama 67% {63%}
• Michele Bachmann 22% {22%}

• Barack Obama 66% {60%} [64%] (60%)
• Herman Cain 19% {19%} [19%] (16%)

• Barack Obama 66%
• Rick Perry 18%

• Barack Obama 73% {67%} [73%] (68%) {71%} [73%] (67%) {72%} [73%] (70%) {65%} [62%] (62%) {66%} [66%] (69%) {62%} [63%] (66%) {69%} [65%] (66%) {68%} [63%] (62%) {68%} [71%] (65%)
• Sarah Palin 20% {22%} [19%] (20%) {20%} [19%] (24%) {21%} [20%] (22%) {25%} [27%] (27%) {26%} [26%] (24%) {26%} [27%] (24%) {24%} [28%] (25%) {23%} [25%] (31%) {25%} [22%] (30%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 39% of the Moderate vote (44% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 45% of the Moderate vote.

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 51% {52%} [49%] (48%) {46%} [42%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (49%) {48%} [47%] (45%) {44%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [45%] (45%) {49%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [44%] (46%) {44%} [38%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 40% {38%} [41%] (44%) {42%} [48%] (41%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {40%} [40%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (46%) {39%} [45%] (44%) {42%} [48%] (46%) {44%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [49%] (49%)

• Rick Perry 47%
• Barack Obama 45%

• Michele Bachmann 47% {48%}
• Barack Obama 46% {41%}

• Barack Obama 46% {42%} [41%] (42%)
• Herman Cain 45% {43%} [44%] (33%)

• Barack Obama 49% {48%} [49%] (47%) {48%} [55%] (48%) {47%} [48%] (46%) {45%} [43%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {44%} [50%] (50%) {45%} [52%] (50%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {48%} [53%] (49%) <45%>
• Sarah Palin 44% {45%} [39%] (42%) {43%} [37%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (48%) {47%} [47%] (44%) {44%} [46%] (46%) {48%} [44%] (42%) {48%} [42%] (42%) {41%} [41%] (47%) {44%} [41%] (47%) <43%>

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 48% of the Male vote (47% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 55% of the Male vote.

Among Women

• Barack Obama 50% {52%} [53%] (53%) {52%} [46%] (53%) {51%} [54%] (51%) {50%} [50%] (42%) {48%} [47%] (43%) {49%} [45%] (43%) {50%} [47%] (50%) {52%} [50%] (51%) {50%} [56%] (52%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {38%} [41%] (37%) {38%} [41%] (36%) {36%} [39%] (42%) {39%} [38%] (48%) {39%} [41%] (44%) {39%} [42%] (39%) {35%} [44%] (36%) {34%} [36%] (35%) {37%} [31%] (34%)

• Barack Obama 53%
• Rick Perry 39%

• Barack Obama 54% {55%}
• Michele Bachmann 38% {34%}

• Barack Obama 52% {55%} [54%] (52%)
• Herman Cain 34% {29%} [33%] (24%)

• Barack Obama 56% {59%} [55%] (60%) {60%} [54%] (57%) {56%} [62%] (56%) {53%} [55%] (44%) {52%} [52%] (46%) {53%} [50%] (48%) {53%} [51%] (54%) {55%} [56%] (54%) {55%} [58%] (56%) <65%>
• Sarah Palin 36% {31%} [37%] (32%) {31%} [36%] (32%) {33%} [32%] (36%) {40%} [40%] (47%) {38%} [41%] (45%) {35%} [41%] (41%) {41%} [45%] (37%) {36%} [35%] (40%) {36%} [34%] (36%) <26%>

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 43% of the Female vote (53% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Female vote.

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 35% {36%} [37%] (35%) {32%} [32%] (32%) {33%} [36%] (36%) {33%} [35%] (32%) {31%} [33%] (33%) {32%} [37%] (36%) {32%} [30%] (34%) {33%} [37%] (37%) {41%} [40%] (40%) / 48% {42%} [47%] (48%) {41%} [43%] (44%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {35%} [37%] (33%) {36%} [36%] (42%) {39%} [28%] (32%) {36%} [39%] (34%) {38%} [34%] (37%){36%} [36%] (35%) {-13%}
• Rick Perry 33% / 47% {-14%}
• Herman Cain 24% {24%} [20%] (9%) / 40% {33%} [38%] (29%) {-16%}
• Michele Bachmann 34% {29%} / 52% {45%} {-18%}
• Sarah Palin 32% {29%} [29%] (30%) {33%} [31%] (35%) {34%} [35%] (38%) {38%} [37%] (37%) {34%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [39%] (42%) {41%} [40%] (36%) {37%} [40%] (47%) {43%} [42%] (42%) <39%> / 62% {62%} [59%] (63%) {60%} [61%] (57%) {56%} [58%] (55%) {52%} [54%] (52%) {53%} [56%] (52%) {50%} [49%] (51%) {50%} [49%] (51%) {55%} [49%] (45%) {49%} [50%] (49%) <50%> {-30%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 35% {45%} [37%] (39%) {29%} [27%] (33%) {28%} [43%] (33%) {31%} [34%] (30%) {34%} [32%] (30%) {37%} [44%] (41%) {28%} [31%] (38%) {38%} [40%] (45%) {40%} [37%] (36%) / 47% {39%} [49%] (45%) {40%} [44%] (45%) {42%} [31%] (46%) {36%} [40%] (34%) {32%} [35%] (41%) {34%} [22%] (32%) {39%} [37%] (28%) {33%} [31%] (28%) {33%} [42%] (39%) {-12%}
• Herman Cain 26% {27%} [18%] (8%) / 40% {33%} [32%] (31%) {-14%}
• Rick Perry 29% / 55% {-26%}
• Michele Bachmann 26% {28%} / 60% {47%} {-34%}
• Sarah Palin 21% {25%} [22%] (26%) {31%} [22%] (30%) {23%} [36%] (37%) {34%} [33%] (36%) {33%} [33%] (33%) {31%} [33%] (42%) {39%} [36%] (34%) {33%} [37%] (45%) {44%} [34%] (38%) <47%> / 74% {65%} [64%] (64%) {62%} [70%] (62%) {65%} [56%] (58%) {58%} [56%] (48%) {49%} [60%] (50%) {53%} [53%] (51%) {54%} [49%] (48%) {59%} [49%] (43%) {42%} [58%] (51%) <43%> {-53%}

Among Republicans

• Rick Perry 62% / 16% {+46%}
• Sarah Palin 65% {60%} [58%] (55%) {61%} [63%] (63%) {65%} [59%] (67%) {69%} [71%] (68%) {66%} [67%] (71%) {69%} [72%] (71%) {73%} [75%] (72%) {69%} [72%] (76%) {75%} [76%] (76%) <69%> / 25% {30%} [29%] (37%) {30%} [25%] (23%) {21%} [32%] (25%) {18%} [19%] (16%) {19%} [23%] (18%) {20%} [17%] (19%) {18%} [15%] (18%) {22%} [16%] (19%) {20%} [15%](18%) <17%> {+40%}
• Michele Bachmann 57% {45%} / 28% {27%} {+29%}
• Herman Cain 41% {40%} [39%] (12%) / 24% {19%} [27%] (17%) {+17%}
• Mitt Romney 51% {49%} [53%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (47%) {54%} [50%] (59%) {56%} [57%] (54%) {49%} [55%] (52%) {57%} [58%] (56%) {51%} [48%] (54%) {50%} [52%] (54%) {63%} [67%] (60%) / 35% {31%} [32%] (32%) {30%} [24%] (26%) {23%} [30%] (21%) {20%} [18%] (18%) {18%} [17%] (25%) {20%} [14%] (17%) {15%} [19%] (20%) {21%} [18%] (25%) {21%} [17%] (21%) {+16%}

Among Democrats

• Mitt Romney 20% {20%} [23%] (18%) {20%} [19%] (17%) {16%} [20%] (19%) {15%} [16%] (14%) {16%} [16%] (15%) {10%} [15%] (12%) {18%} [14%] (15%) {15%} [23%] (20%) {24%} [20%] (27%) / 61% {52%} [60%] (64%) {51%} [60%] (60%) {58%} [55%] (59%) {49%} [53%] (45%) {53%} [51%] (60%) {56%} [44%] (47%) {53%} [56%] (48%) {55%} [49%] (52%) {49%} [49%] (45%) {-41%}
• Herman Cain 8% {9%} [5%] (7%) / 55% {45%} [51%] (39%) {-47%}
• Michele Bachmann 16% {16%} / 69% {58%} {-53%}
• Rick Perry 10% / 71% {-61%}
• Sarah Palin 7% {8%} [7%] (10%) {10%} [8%] (12%) {12%} [11%] (14%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [13%] (9%) {15%} [13%] (14%) {14%} [13%] (9%) {12%} [15%] (25%) {18%} [17%] (18%) <11%> / 89% {85%} [83%] (85%) {82%} [87%] (86%) {85%} [83%] (79%) {80%} [83%] (86%) {81%} [82%] (87%) {72%} [74%] (80%) {76%} [78%] (79%) {80%} [75%] (67%) {76%} [74%] (73%) <78%> {-82%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 32% {36%} [35%] (34%) {27%} [31%] (30%) {23%} [31%] (33%) {30%} [29%] (26%) {26%} [29%] (25%) {22%} [37%] (30%) {23%} [26%] (29%) {32%} [34%] (33%) {35%} [35%] (34%) / 51% {39%} [47%] (45%) {45%} [44%] (45%) {41%} [42%] (45%) {39%} [42%] (34%) {42%} [36%] (49%) {48%} [29%] (38%) {44%} [37%] (37%) {41%} [36%] (39%) {40%} [42%] (44%) {-19%}
• Herman Cain 9% {14%} [9%] (7%) / 47% {34%} [37%] (32%) {-38%}
• Rick Perry 17% / 60% {-43%}
• Michele Bachmann 19% {17%} / 66% {53%} {-47%}
• Sarah Palin 15% {16%} [15%] (14%) {18%} [15%] (26%) {19%} [18%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (20%) {21%} [19%] (19%) {23%} [23%] (26%) {23%} [23%] (22%) {20%} [29%] (33%) {33%} [29%] (28%) / 81% {76%} [72%] (79%) {75%} [77%] (69%) {72%} [77%] (73%) {70%} [67%] (67%) {67%} [72%] (71%) {64%} [63%] (68%) {70%} [62%] (66%) {71%} [58%] (58%) {58%} [64%] (67%) {-66%}

Among Men

• Rick Perry 38% / 47% {-9%}
• Mitt Romney 38% {40%} [41%] (40%) {32%} [29%] (34%) {39%} [40%] (39%) {37%} [40%] (31%) {33%} [34%] (34%) {37%} [40%] (42%) {37%} [32%] (39%) {34%} [42%] (42%) {44%} [45%] (45%) / 48% {43%} [48%] (46%) {42%} [46%] (47%) {43%} [42%] (43%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {39%} [41%] (49%) {38%} [29%] (35%) {37%} [41%] (35%) {43%} [37%] (38%) {38%} [34%] (39%) {-10%}
• Herman Cain 30% {28%} [27%] (13%) / 41% {37%} [34%] (31%) {-11%}
• Michele Bachmann 37% {32%} / 50% {48%} {-13%}
• Sarah Palin 36% {35%} [27%] (35%) {36%} [34%] (41%) {40%} [37%] (42%) {41%} [40%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (40%) {38%} [39%] (41%) {45%} [37%] (40%) {39%} [43%] (50%) {47%} [48%] (46%) <48%> / 59% {58%} [59%] (58%) {56%} [61%] (51%) {50%} [54%] (51%) {48%} [49%] (54%) {50%} [56%] (54%) {50%} [48%] (50%) {50%} [51%] (47%) {54%} [46%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (49%) <38%> {-23%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 32% {32%} [34%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (30%) {27%} [32%] (34%) {31%} [30%] (34%) {30%} [33%] (31%) {27%} [35%] (31%) {27%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [33%] (34%) {39%} [36%] (36%) / 48% {41%} [47%] (49%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {40%} [38%] (42%) {32%} [38%] (29%) {34%} [31%] (35%) {40%} [27%] (30%) {35%} [35%] (32%) {33%} [32%] (36%) {34%} [38%] (32%) {-16%}
• Rick Perry 29% / 48% {-19%}
• Herman Cain 19% {20%} [14%] (5%) / 39% {30%} [42%] (28%) {-20%}
• Michele Bachmann 31% {26%} / 53% {42%} {-22%}
• Sarah Palin 28% {24%} [30%] (26%) {30%} [27%] (28%) {29%} [32%] (34%) {37%} [35%] (37%) {30%} [36%] (37%) {35%} [38%] (43%) {37%} [42%] (32%) {36%} [37%] (45%) {40%} [36%] (39%) <29%> / 65% {65%} [59%] (67%) {63%} [61%] (64%) {62%} [63%] (59%) {56%} [57%] (50%) {55%} [56%] (51%) {51%} [50%] (51%) {51%} [48%] (54%) {55%} [51%] (46%) {53%} [53%] (49%) <61%> {-37%}

Survey of 700 registered voters was conducted August 18-21, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% {42%} [40%] (39%) {40%} [38%] (40%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {41%} [39%] (39%) {43%} [41%] (38%) {43%} [40%] {38%} (36%) [39%] Democrat; 37% {33%} [35%] (35%) {34%} [34%] (36%) {38%} [37%] (35%) {36%} [35%] (34%) {34%} [35%] (38%) {33%} [34%] {34%} (35%) [34%] Republican; 21% {25%} [25%] (25%) {27%} [28%] (24%) {20%} [23%] (23%) {23%} [25%] (27%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {24%} [26%] {28%} (29%) [27%] Independent/Other. Political views: 31% {36%} [31%] (31%) {33%} [34%] (33%) {30%} Moderate; 25% {21%} [23%] (24%) {22%} [27%] (25%) {25%} Somewhat conservative; 18% {15%} [19%] (17%) {18%} [18%] (17%) {18%} Somewhat liberal; 17% {17%} [18%] (18%) {18%} [14%] (17%) {19%} Very conservative; 9% {10%} [9%] (9%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {8%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-12, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 23-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-8, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 3, 2011 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-14, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 13-15, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 18-19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7,2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 13-15, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll onducted October 16-19, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-21, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15-16, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16,2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-18, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-19, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2009 are in angle brackets.