Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Survey
  • Rick Perry 31% [33%] (12%)
  • Mitt Romney 18% [20%] (20%) {27%} [20%] (28%) {25%} [24%]
  • Ron Paul 11% [6%] (9%) {6%} [11%] (12%) {13%} [12%]
  • Newt Gingrich 10% [8%] (7%) {12%} [13%] (26%) {23%} [24%]
  • Michele Bachmann 9% [16%] (21%) {13%} [13%] (11%) {8%}
  • Herman Cain 8% [6%] (11%) {20%} [12%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [4%]
  • Jon Huntsman 2% [3%] (3%) {3%} [4%]
If the Republican Presidential race came down to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
  • Rick Perry 49% [52%]
  • Mitt Romney 37% [36%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Rick Perry 58% [64%] / 24% [17%] {+34%}
  • Mitt Romney 52% [51%] (50%) {55%} [54%] (52%) {50%} [51%] (55%) {52%} [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 32% [33%] (31%) {27%} [30%] (29%) {29%} [29%] (25%) {28%} [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+20%}
  • Michele Bachmann 45% [51%] (48%) / 36% [32%] (26%) {+9%}
  • Newt Gingrich 46% {36%} [39%] (54%) {50%} [50%] (55%) {58%} [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 39% {49%} [44%] (30%) {33%} [32%] (26%) {24%} [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+7%}
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
  • Yes 38%
  • No 46%
Note: With Republicans who don't identify as members of the Tea Party movement, Romney leads Perry 28-26. But with active Tea Partiers, he's stuck all the way back in a tie for 4th with Newt Gingrich at 10%, well behind Perry's 33%, Bachmann's 14%, and Cain's 13%. 

Do you believe in global warming or not?
  • Believe in global warming 27%
  • Do not 62%
Note: Romney leads Perry 23-18 among GOP voters who believe in global warming...With the 62% who don't believe in it, Perry's up 38-14. 

Do you believe in evolution or not?
  • Believe in evolution 40%
  • Do not 48%
Note: Perry leads Romney by just two percent, 25-23, among GOP voters who believe in evolution...With the 48% of GOP voters who don't believe in evolution, however, Perry holds a commanding lead, 36-15.

Would you support eliminating Social Security or not?
  • Would support eliminating Social Security 17%
  • Would not 75%
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme.”
  • Agree 33%
  • Disagree 53%
Note: Perry is really running up the score with those who agree that Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme, leading 40-15. That makes up for the fact that he has only a 24-23 advantage on Romney with voters who disagree with him on that front.

Would you support eliminating Medicare or not?
  • Would support eliminating Medicare 12%
  • Would not 78%
Note: Perry leads Romney only 27-23 among GOP voters opposed to ending Medicare. But with the 12% who do support eliminating it Perry leads Romney 43-5, accounting for much of his overall lead.

Would you support eliminating Medicaid or not?
  • Would support eliminating Medicaid 25%
  • Would not 61%
Do you think that natural disasters are messages from God or not?
  • Natural disasters are a message from God 27%
  • They are not 61%
Do you support or oppose capital punishment?
  • Support 80%
  • Oppose 14%
Do you think executing convicted murderers is something to cheer about or not?
  • Executing convicted murderers is something to cheer about 22%
  • It is not 70%
Do you think Barack Obama is a Socialist or not?
  • He is a Socialist 71%
  • He is not 17%
Note: With Republicans who don't think Barack Obama is a Socialist, Romney leads Perry 26-13...but with the 71% who do think Obama is a Socialist Perry is ahead 35-16.
Survey of 500 usual Republican primary voters was conducted September 8-11, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 79% Republican; 19% Independent/Other; 2% Democrat.  Political ideology: 43% [42%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (38%) {44%} [40%] (41%) Somewhat conservative; 33% [35%] (37%) {35%} [38%] (39%) {31%} [38%] (39%) Very conservative;  19% [17%] (20%) {18%} [16%] (17%) {17%} [19%] (15%) Moderate; 4% [3%] (4%) {3%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [2%] (2%) {3%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 18-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

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