Monday, October 17, 2011

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 GOP Nomination Poll
  • Mitt Romney 26% [22%] (21%) {18%} [23%] (22%)
  • Herman Cain 25% [9%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 13% [30%] (32%) {32%} [18%] (17%)
  • Ron Paul 9% [7%] (13%) {6%} [14%] (12%)
  • Newt Gingrich 8% [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (5%)
  • Michele Bachmann 6% [6%] (7%) {12%} [9%] (14%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (1%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 1% [3%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 5% [5%] (4%) {6%} [5%] (10%)
  • No opinion 4% [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)
  • Herman Cain 39% [14%] (7%) {2%} [4%] (10%)
  • Mitt Romney 17% [18%] (16%) {11%} [15%] (12%)
  • Newt Gingrich 11% [9%] (5%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
  • Rick Perry 10% [36%] (38%) {37%} [20%] (22%)
  • Ron Paul 9% [5%] (8%) {5%} [12%] (9%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5% [3%] (4%) {14%} [11%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0% [1%] (2%) {2%} [4%] (1%)
Tea Party Neutral (MoE: +/-7.5%)
  • Mitt Romney 35% [24%] (18%) {16%} [18%] (22%)
  • Herman Cain 14% [3%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%)
  • Rick Perry 13% [22%] (22%) {18%} [9%] (5%)
  • Ron Paul 11% [7%] (13%) {6%} [12%] (6%)
  • Michele Bachmann 8% [4%] (4%) {6%} [3%] (5%)
  • Newt Gingrich 7% [11%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (4%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% [2%] (2%) {0%} [2%] (0%)
Among Men (MoE: +/-6.5%)
  • Herman Cain 30% [9%] (4%) {2%} [5%] (8%)
  • Mitt Romney 25% [18%] (19%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
  • Rick Perry 13% [35%] (30%) {32%} [13%] (20%)
  • Newt Gingrich 10% [9%] (6%) {6%} [7%] (4%)
  • Ron Paul 6% [6%] (12%) {6%} [17%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 3% [2%] (5%) {8%} [9%] (13%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (0%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% [2%] (2%) {2%} [4%] (0%)
Among Women (MoE: +/-7.0%)
  • Mitt Romney 26% [26%] (16%) {15%} [22%] (15%)
  • Herman Cain 20% [6%] (5%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • Rick Perry 14% [22%] (30%) {23%} [16%] (8%)
  • Ron Paul 13% [8%] (10%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 9% [7%] (3%) {10%} [4%] (9%)
  • Newt Gingrich 6% [11%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% [4%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0% [0%] (3%) {0%} [4%] (1%)
      Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?
      • Definitely support 33%
      • Might change mind 67%
      Survey of 416 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted October 14-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 24-25, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses

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