Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Among Republicans/GOP-Leaning Independents Who Recognize Candidate


Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Herman Cain 77% (75%) [77%] {76%} (73%) [73%] {74%} (74%) [74%] {77%} (76%) [77%] {72%} / 13% (14%) [15%] {15%} (13%) [14%] {13%} (14%) [13%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {16%} {+64%}
  • Mitt Romney 71% (72%) [72%] {74%} (71%) [71%] {70%} (73%) [74%] {72%} (73%) [74%] {73%} / 18% (19%) [20%] {18%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (19%) [17%] {18%} (18%) [16%] {16%} {+53%}
  • Newt Gingrich 66% (63%) [64%] {61%} (61%) [61%] {60%} (57%) [53%] {56%} (57%) [56%] {55%} / 27% (30%) [30%] {31%} (33%) [31%] {34%} (35%) [36%] {34%} (34%) [36%] {36%} {+39%}
  • Rick Santorum 62% (61%) [65%] {65%} (60%) [63%] {62%} (62%) [64%] {62%} (62%) [67%] {69%} / 24% (23%) [19%] {21%} (22%) [23%] {23%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (20%) [18%] {15%} {+38%}
  • Rick Perry 63% (68%) [71%] {74%} (73%) [73%] {71%} (69%) [70%] {70%} (74%) [73%] {67%} / 27% (21%) [17%] {15%} (16%) [13%] {14%} (15%) [13%] {15%} (15%) [15%] {17%} {+36%}
  • Michele Bachmann 59% (59%) [62%] {65%} (64%) [67%] {68%} (67%) [70%] {69%} (64%) [67%] {74%} / 32% (31%) [29%] {29%} (27%) [24%] {23%} (21%) [20%] {21%} (24%) [20%] {15%} {+27%}
  • Jon Huntsman 54% (50%) [51%] {53%} (53%) [50%] {48%} (50%) [51%] {50%} (55%) [55%] {55%} / 31% (31%) [32%] {32%} (34%) [34%] {35%} (31%) [27%] {28%} (25%) [24%] {26%} {+23%}
  • Ron Paul 53% (56%) [57%] {57%} (59%) [61%] {60%} (61%) [63%] {65%} (65%) [61%] {62%} / 35% (33%) [32%] {34%} (30%) [27%] {28%} (27%) [25%] {24%} (24%) [25%] {25%} {+18%}
Herman Cain
  • Strongly Favorable 35% (31%) [27%] {25%} (24%) [26%] {28%} (29%) [26%] {24%} (27%) [29%] {26%}
  • Favorable 42% (44%) [50%] {51%} (49%) [47%] {46%} (45%) [48%] {53%} (49%) [48%] {46%}
  • Unfavorable 12% (13%) [14%] {13%} (11%) [12%] {12%} (13%) [12%] {12%} (11%) [10%] {15%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 1% (1%) [1%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (1%) [1%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {1%}
Mitt Romney
  • Strongly Favorable 18% (17%) [17%] {19%} (19%) [15%] {15%} (18%) [17%] {17%} (18%) [21%] {19%}
  • Favorable 53% (55%) [55%] {55%} (52%) [56%] {55%} (55%) [57%] {55%} (55%) [53%] {54%}
  • Unfavorable 14% (16%) [17%] {15%} (17%) [16%] {16%} (15%) [14%] {15%} (15%) [13%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 4% (3%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {4%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%}

Newt Gingrich
  • Strongly Favorable 18% (16%) [16%] {15%} (13%) [13%] {15%} (12%) [10%] {9%} (8%) [10%] {11%}
  • Favorable 48% (47%) [48%] {46%} (48%) [48%] {45%} (45%) [43%] {47%} (49%) [46%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 22% (24%) [24%] {25%} (27%) [25%] {26%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {29%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 5% (6%) [6%] {6%} (6%) [6%] {8%} (8%) [7%] {7%} (7%) [7%] {7%}
Rick Santorum
  • Strongly Favorable 12% (12%) [13%] {12%} (11%) [13%] {13%} (9%) [9%] {9%} (11%) [13%] {13%}
  • Favorable 50% (49%) [52%] {53%} (49%) [50%] {49%} (53%) [55%] {53%} (51%) [54%] {56%}
  • Unfavorable 22% (20%) [17%] {19%} (19%) [20%] {20%} (18%) [17%] {16%} (16%) [16%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 2% (3%) [2%] {2%} (3%) [3%] {3%} (2%) [2%] {4%} (4%) [2%] {1%}
Rick Perry
  • Strongly Favorable 13% (19%) [25%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (25%) [25%] {24%} (26%) [26%] {23%}
  • Favorable 50% (49%) [46%] {47%} (46%) [44%] {44%} (44%) [45%] {46%} (48%) [47%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 21% (17%) [14%] {12%} (12%) [10%] {12%} (13%) [11%] {14%} (13%) [12%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% (4%) [3%] {3%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (2%) [3%] {3%}
Michele Bachmann
  • Strongly Favorable 11% (12%) [15%] {17%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (21%) [24%] {22%} (20%) [23%] {24%}
  • Favorable 48% (47%) [47%] {48%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {47%} (44%) [44%] {50%}
  • Unfavorable 25% (24%) [22%] {23%} (21%) [18%] {17%} (16%) [16%] {17%} (18%) [15%] {12%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 7% (7%) [7%] {6%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (6%) [5%] {3%}
Jon Huntsman
  • Strongly Favorable 5% (4%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [5%] {6%} (6%) [7%] {8%} (8%) [6%] {7%}
  • Favorable 49% (46%) [45%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [44%] {42%} (47%) [49%] {48%}
  • Unfavorable 27% (26%) [27%] {28%} (28%) [28%] {30%} (27%) [24%] {26%} (22%) [20%] {21%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 4% (5%) [5%] {4%} (6%) [6%] {5%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (3%) [4%] {5%}
Ron Paul
  • Strongly Favorable 9% (10%) [12%] {13%} (12%) [11%] {11%} (14%) [15%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {11%}
  • Favorable 44% (46%) [45%] {44%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (47%) [48%] {52%} (52%) [49%] {51%}
  • Unfavorable 28% (27%) [26%] {28%} (25%) [23%] {23%} (22%) [21%] {20%} (20%) [21%] {22%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 7% (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {5%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [4%] {3%}
    Positive Intensity Score (Strongly Favorable minus Strongly Unfavorable)
    • Herman Cain +34% (+30%) [+26%] {+24%} (+22%) [+24%] {+27%} (+28%) [+25%] {+22%} (+25%) [+27%] {+25%}
    • Mitt Romney +14% (+13%) [+14%] {+15%} (+16%) [+12%] {+11%} (+14%) [+15%] {+14%} (+15%) [18%] {+17%}
    • Newt Gingrich +13% (+11%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+7%] {+7%} (+4%) [+3%] {+2%} (+1%) [+3%] {+4%}
    • Rick Santorum +10% (+8%) [+11%] {+10%} (+8%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+6%] {+5%} (+7%) [+11%] {+12%}
    • Rick Perry +7% (+15%) [+22%] {+24%} (+24%) [+25%] {+25%} (+22%) [+23%] {+23%} (+24%) [+23%] {+21%}
    • Michele Bachmann +4% (+5%) [+8%] {+11%} (+10%) [+11%] {+13%} (+16%) [+20%] {+18%} (+14%) [+18%] {+21%}
    • Ron Paul +2% (+3%) [+6%] {+7%} (+7%) [+6%] {+6%} (+9%) [+11%] {+9%} (+8%) [+9%] {+8%}
    • Jon Huntsman +1% (-1%) [+1%] {+2%} (-1%) [-2%] {+1%} (+2%) [+4%] {+6%} (+5%) [+3%] {+2%}
      Name Recognition
      • Newt Gingrich 85% (84%) [85%] {86%} (86%) [86%] {85%} (85%) [86%] {85%} (84%) [85%] {85%}
      • Mitt Romney 85% (83%) [84%] {85%} (86%) [88%] {88%} (86%) [86%] {86%} (84%) [85%] {86%}
      • Michele Bachmann 84% (84%) [83%] {84%} (84%) [84%] {85%} (83%) [81%] {78%} (76%) [78%] {77%}
      • Rick Perry 80% (80%) [79%] {76%} (75%) [74%] {75%} (67%) [59%] {54%} (54%) [56%] {55%}
      • Ron Paul 78% (79%) [80%] {82%} (81%) [79%] {78%} (78%) [78%] {78%} (77%) [78%] {77%}
      • Herman Cain 61% (55%) [51%] {50%} (48%) [48%] {50%} (47%) [45%] {45%} (46%) [47%] {44%}
      • Rick Santorum 54% (54%) [53%] {53%} (54%) [52%] {52%} (51%) [51%] {51%} (50%) [50%] {49%}
      • Jon Huntsman 46% (43%) [44%] {45%} (46%) [46%] {43%} (40%) [38%] {39%} (40%) [40%] {41%}
      Survey Methods
      Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking September 26 - October 9, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 10 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period, each candidate was rated by approximately 1,400 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

      For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.  
       
      Results from the poll conducted September 19 - October 2, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 5-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22 - September 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 8-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 1-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25 - August 7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 4-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.

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