Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Survey

• Herman Cain 29% (7%) {6%} [9%] (10%)
• Mitt Romney 29% (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Rick Perry 9% (28%) {29%} [18%]
• Ron Paul 5% (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)
• Michele Bachmann 4% (8%) {13%} [16%] (19%)
• Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {1%}
• Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%)
• Not sure 7% (11%) {16%} [9%]

Suppose the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Herman Cain. For whom would you vote?

• Herman Cain 43%
• Mitt Romney 42%

Suppose the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Herman Cain and Rick Perry. For whom would you vote?

• Herman Cain 54%
• Rick Perry 29%

Suppose the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. For whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 54%
• Rick Perry 30%

Regardless of which candidate you want to win the Republican Presidential Nomination, which candidate is most likely to win?

• Mitt Romney 51%
• Herman Cain 17%
• Rick Perry 13%

Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted October 12, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Cain draws support from a plurality (44%) of Tea Party voters, while a plurality (32%) of non-Tea Party members supports Romney in the GOP primary race. 

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Evangelical Christian voters and 34% of Catholic voters prefer Cain. Romney leads among Protestant voters with 32% of the vote. 

If nominated, 80% believe Romney would be at least somewhat likely to beat President Obama in the general election. Seventy-two percent (72%) hold that view of Cain and 67% say the same about Perry.