Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Among Republicans/GOP-Leaning Independents Who Recognize Candidate


Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Herman Cain 76% (74%) [76%] {77%} (75%) [77%] {76%} (73%) [73%] {74%} (74%) [74%] {77%} (76%) [77%] {72%} / 16% (16%) [14%] {13%} (14%) [15%] {15%} (13%) [14%] {13%} (14%) [13%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {16%} {+60%}
  • Mitt Romney 70% (66%) [67%] {71%} (72%) [72%] {74%} (71%) [71%] {70%} (73%) [74%] {72%} (73%) [74%] {73%} / 22% (24%) [23%] {18%} (19%) [20%] {18%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (19%) [17%] {18%} (18%) [16%] {16%} {+48%}
  • Newt Gingrich 64% (65%) [67%] {66%} (63%) [64%] {61%} (61%) [61%] {60%} (57%) [53%] {56%} (57%) [56%] {55%} / 28% (27%) [27%] {27%} (30%) [30%] {31%} (33%) [31%] {34%} (35%) [36%] {34%} (34%) [36%] {36%} {+36%}
  • Rick Perry 63% (60%) [60%] {63%} (68%) [71%] {74%} (73%) [73%] {71%} (69%) [70%] {70%} (74%) [73%] {67%} / 28% (29%) [30%] {27%} (21%) [17%] {15%} (16%) [13%] {14%} (15%) [13%] {15%} (15%) [15%] {17%} {+35%}
  • Rick Santorum 58% (58%) [62%] {62%} (61%) [65%] {65%} (60%) [63%] {62%} (62%) [64%] {62%} (62%) [67%] {69%} / 27% (25%) [23%] {24%} (23%) [19%] {21%} (22%) [23%] {23%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (20%) [18%] {15%} {+31%}
  • Ron Paul 57% (55%) [53%] {53%} (56%) [57%] {57%} (59%) [61%] {60%} (61%) [63%] {65%} (65%) [61%] {62%} / 34% (34%) [36%] {35%} (33%) [32%] {34%} (30%) [27%] {28%} (27%) [25%] {24%} (24%) [25%] {25%} {+23%}
  • Michele Bachmann 56% (56%) [57%] {59%} (59%) [62%] {65%} (64%) [67%] {68%} (67%) [70%] {69%} (64%) [67%] {74%} / 36% (34%) [33%] {32%} (31%) [29%] {29%} (27%) [24%] {23%} (21%) [20%] {21%} (24%) [20%] {15%} {+20%}
  • Jon Huntsman 47% (46%) [52%] {54%} (50%) [51%] {53%} (53%) [50%] {48%} (50%) [51%] {50%} (55%) [55%] {55%} / 36% (36%) [34%] {31%} (31%) [32%] {32%} (34%) [34%] {35%} (31%) [27%] {28%} (25%) [24%] {26%} {+11%}
Herman Cain
  • Strongly Favorable 32% (33%) [35%] {35%} (31%) [27%] {25%} (24%) [26%] {28%} (29%) [26%] {24%} (27%) [29%] {26%}
  • Favorable 44% (41%) [41%] {42%} (44%) [50%] {51%} (49%) [47%] {46%} (45%) [48%] {53%} (49%) [48%] {46%}
  • Unfavorable 13% (13%) [12%] {12%} (13%) [14%] {13%} (11%) [12%] {12%} (13%) [12%] {12%} (11%) [10%] {15%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 3% (3%) [2%] {1%} (1%) [1%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (1%) [1%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {1%}
Mitt Romney
  • Strongly Favorable 16% (16%) [19%] {18%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (19%) [15%] {15%} (18%) [17%] {17%} (18%) [21%] {19%}
  • Favorable 54% (50%) [48%] {53%} (55%) [55%] {55%} (52%) [56%] {55%} (55%) [57%] {55%} (55%) [53%] {54%}
  • Unfavorable 18% (20%) [19%] {14%} (16%) [17%] {15%} (17%) [16%] {16%} (15%) [14%] {15%} (15%) [13%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 4% (4%) [4%] {4%} (3%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {4%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%}
Newt Gingrich
  • Strongly Favorable 18% (18%) [19%] {18%} (16%) [16%] {15%} (13%) [13%] {15%} (12%) [10%] {9%} (8%) [10%] {11%}
  • Favorable 46% (47%) [48%] {48%} (47%) [48%] {46%} (48%) [48%] {45%} (45%) [43%] {47%} (49%) [46%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 22% (21%) [22%] {22%} (24%) [24%] {25%} (27%) [25%] {26%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {29%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% (6%) [5%] {5%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (6%) [6%] {8%} (8%) [7%] {7%} (7%) [7%] {7%}
Rick Perry
  • Strongly Favorable 13% (11%) [11%] {13%} (19%) [25%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (25%) [25%] {24%} (26%) [26%] {23%}
  • Favorable 50% (49%) [49%] {50%} (49%) [46%] {47%} (46%) [44%] {44%} (44%) [45%] {46%} (48%) [47%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 21% (22%) [23%] {21%} (17%) [14%] {12%} (12%) [10%] {12%} (13%) [11%] {14%} (13%) [12%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 7% (7%) [7%] {6%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (2%) [3%] {3%}
Rick Santorum
  • Strongly Favorable 12% (11%) [12%] {12%} (12%) [13%] {12%} (11%) [13%] {13%} (9%) [9%] {9%} (11%) [13%] {13%}
  • Favorable 46% (47%) [50%] {50%} (49%) [52%] {53%} (49%) [50%] {49%} (53%) [55%] {53%} (51%) [54%] {56%}
  • Unfavorable 23% (22%) [21%] {22%} (20%) [17%] {19%} (19%) [20%] {20%} (18%) [17%] {16%} (16%) [16%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 4% (3%) [2%] {2%} (3%) [2%] {2%} (3%) [3%] {3%} (2%) [2%] {4%} (4%) [2%] {1%}
Ron Paul
  • Strongly Favorable 12% (11%) [10%] {9%} (10%) [12%] {13%} (12%) [11%] {11%} (14%) [15%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {11%}
  • Favorable 45% (44%) [43%] {44%} (46%) [45%] {44%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (47%) [48%] {52%} (52%) [49%] {51%}
  • Unfavorable 28% (28%) [28%] {28%} (27%) [26%] {28%} (25%) [23%] {23%} (22%) [21%] {20%} (20%) [21%] {22%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% (6%) [8%] {7%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {5%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [4%] {3%}
Michele Bachmann
  • Strongly Favorable 11% (11%) [12%] {11%} (12%) [15%] {17%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (21%) [24%] {22%} (20%) [23%] {24%}
  • Favorable 45% (45%) [45%] {48%} (47%) [47%] {48%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {47%} (44%) [44%] {50%}
  • Unfavorable 28% (26%) [24%] {25%} (24%) [22%] {23%} (21%) [18%] {17%} (16%) [16%] {17%} (18%) [15%] {12%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 8% (8%) [9%] {7%} (7%) [7%] {6%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (6%) [5%] {3%}
Jon Huntsman
  • Strongly Favorable 4% (4%) [6%] {5%} (4%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [5%] {6%} (6%) [7%] {8%} (8%) [6%] {7%}
  • Favorable 43% (42%) [46%] {49%} (46%) [45%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [44%] {42%} (47%) [49%] {48%}
  • Unfavorable 30% (30%) [29%] {27%} (26%) [27%] {28%} (28%) [28%] {30%} (27%) [24%] {26%} (22%) [20%] {21%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% (6%) [5%] {4%} (5%) [5%] {4%} (6%) [6%] {5%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (3%) [4%] {5%}

Positive Intensity Score (Strongly Favorable minus Strongly Unfavorable)
  • Herman Cain +29% (+30%) [+34%] {+34%} (+30%) [+26%] {+24%} (+22%) [+24%] {+27%} (+28%) [+25%] {+22%} (+25%) [+27%] {+25%}
  • Mitt Romney +12% (+13%) [+15%] {+14%} (+13%) [+14%] {+15%} (+16%) [+12%] {+11%} (+14%) [+15%] {+14%} (+15%) [18%] {+17%}
  • Newt Gingrich +12% (+12%) [+13%] {+13%} (+11%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+7%] {+7%} (+4%) [+3%] {+2%} (+1%) [+3%] {+4%}
  • Rick Santorum +8% (+8%) [+10%] {+10%} (+8%) [+11%] {+10%} (+8%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+6%] {+5%} (+7%) [+11%] {+12%}
  • Rick Perry +6% (+5%) [+4%] {+7%} (+15%) [+22%] {+24%} (+24%) [+25%] {+25%} (+22%) [+23%] {+23%} (+24%) [+23%] {+21%}
  • Ron Paul +6% (+5%) [+2%] {+2%} (+3%) [+6%] {+7%} (+7%) [+6%] {+6%} (+9%) [+11%] {+9%} (+8%) [+9%] {+8%}
  • Michele Bachmann +3% (+3%) [+4%] {+4%} (+5%) [+8%] {+11%} (+10%) [+11%] {+13%} (+16%) [+20%] {+18%} (+14%) [+18%] {+21%}
  • Jon Huntsman -2% (-2%) [+1%] {+1%} (-1%) [+1%] {+2%} (-1%) [-2%] {+1%} (+2%) [+4%] {+6%} (+5%) [+3%] {+2%}
Name Recognition
  • Mitt Romney 88% (88%) [88%] {85%} (83%) [84%] {85%} (86%) [88%] {88%} (86%) [86%] {86%} (84%) [85%] {86%}
  • Newt Gingrich 86% (87%) [86%] {85%} (84%) [85%] {86%} (86%) [86%] {85%} (85%) [86%] {85%} (84%) [85%] {85%}
  • Rick Perry 86% (85%) [82%] {80%} (80%) [79%] {76%} (75%) [74%] {75%} (67%) [59%] {54%} (54%) [56%] {55%}
  • Michele Bachmann 84% (83%) [85%] {84%} (84%) [83%] {84%} (84%) [84%] {85%} (83%) [81%] {78%} (76%) [78%] {77%}
  • Ron Paul 81% (80%) [80%] {78%} (79%) [80%] {82%} (81%) [79%] {78%} (78%) [78%] {78%} (77%) [78%] {77%}
  • Herman Cain 80% (78%) [69%] {61%} (55%) [51%] {50%} (48%) [48%] {50%} (47%) [45%] {45%} (46%) [47%] {44%}
  • Rick Santorum 57% (57%) [55%] {54%} (54%) [53%] {53%} (54%) [52%] {52%} (51%) [51%] {51%} (50%) [50%] {49%}
  • Jon Huntsman 52% (50%) [49%] {46%} (43%) [44%] {45%} (46%) [46%] {43%} (40%) [38%] {39%} (40%) [40%] {41%}


Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking October 17-30, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 10 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period, each candidate was rated by approximately 1,500 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.  
 
Results from the poll conducted October 10-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 3-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 26 - October 9, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19 - October 2, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 5-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22 - September 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 8-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 1-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25 - August 7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 4-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.

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