Thursday, November 03, 2011

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Survey
  • Herman Cain 26% [29%] (7%) {6%} [9%] (10%)
  • Mitt Romney 23% [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%)
  • Newt Gingrich 14% [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
  • Rick Perry 8% [9%] (28%) {29%} [18%]
  • Ron Paul 7% [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)
  • Michele Bachmann 2% [4%] (8%) {13%} [16%] (19%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2% [2%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (3%) {1%}
  • Not sure 13% [7%] (11%) {16%} [9%]
Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?
  • Certain 32%
  • Might change your mind 68%
If the 2012 Republican Primary for President were held today and you had a choice between only Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich or Herman Cain for whom would you vote?
  • Mitt Romney 33%
  • Herman Cain 29%
  • Newt Gingrich 24%
Suppose the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Herman Cain. For whom would you vote?
  • Mitt Romney 43% [42%]
  • Herman Cain 42% [43%]
Note: Romney is also essentially even with Gingrich in a two-way race. 

Regardless of which candidate you want to win the Republican Presidential Nomination, which candidate is most likely to win?
  • Mitt Romney 49% [51%]
  • Herman Cain 18% [17%]
Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted November 2, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Cain leads among GOP voters who consider themselves Very Conservative with 38% of the vote. Among those who are Somewhat Conservative, Romney picks up 28% of the vote while Cain draws support from 24%.

Among Republican voters nationwide, 76% were able to correctly identify Cain as the candidate who was accused of sexual harassment in the 1990s.

Just 13% of GOP Primary voters think it’s Very Likely that the charges against Cain are serious and true. Another 25% think it’s Somewhat Likely. Forty-eight percent (48%) consider it unlikely, but that includes only 13% who say that it is Not at All Likely.

Among all voters nationally, 39% believe the allegations against Cain are at least somewhat likely to be serious and true, while 38% disagree.

If Romney is the nominee, only 12% would be Very Likely to consider voting for a third party candidate. Another 16% would be Somewhat Likely to do so. Seventy-five percent (75%) say they will support the Republican candidate in the general election even if their favorite candidate doesn’t win.

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