Poll Watch: Rasmussen Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 41% (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% (19%)
• Rick Santorum 15% (1%)
• Ron Paul 9% (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 5% (2%)
• Rick Perry 2% (4%)
• Some other candidate 1%
• Undecided 8%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 51%
• Could change mind 41%
• No preference yet 8%

Note: Those who are certain of their vote already in the January 31 primary include 79% of Perry supporters, 63% of those who back Romney, 60% of Paul voters and 58% of Gingrich’s. Just 33% of Santorum’s supporters and 32% of Huntsman’s are locked in at this point.

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama, or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 83%
• President Barack Obama 6%
• Third party candidate 6%

Note: The latter group includes 23% of Paul’s voters. As in New Hampshire and nationally, Paul’s supporters in Florida are much more likely than those backing any other candidate to plan to vote third party if he doesn’t get the GOP nomination.

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney runs slightly stronger among female primary voters than among male voters in Florida but holds large leads among both.

Among Tea Party voters in the state, Romney holds a much narrower 31% to 27% lead over Gingrich, with Santorum at 25%. But a plurality (48%) of those who are not part of the grass roots movement prefers Romney.

The race is also closer among Evangelical Christians, with Romney earning 34% support to Santorum’s 27%. The former governor has more comfortable leads among other Protestants, Catholics and primary voters of other faiths.

Just nine percent (9%) of all likely Florida Republican primary voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, and 87% think it is at least somewhat likely he will be defeated in November by the GOP candidate. That includes 57% who say it’s Very Likely.

Regardless of which candidate they support, 79% of likely GOP primary voters in Florida expect Romney to be the eventual Republican presidential nominee. As in Iowa, New Hampshire and nationally, Romney is also the GOP candidate most Florida Republicans believe to be the strongest challenger to President Obama. Paul is viewed as the weakest potential challenger.

Romney is viewed favorably by 76% of likely Florida Republican primary voters, followed by Santorum at 61%, Gingrich at 59%, Perry at 43%, Huntsman at 34% and Paul at 33%.