Poll Watch: Rasmussen South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 27% (23%)
• Rick Santorum 24% (1%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% (15%)
• Ron Paul 11% (5%)
• Rick Perry 5% (9%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (1%)
• Some other candidate 2%
• Undecided 11%

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 5, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Things remain fluid in South Carolina, however, with nearly half the state’s primary voters (48%) saying they still could change their minds. Just 41% are certain already of how they will vote. Those certain of their vote include 62% of Paul’s supporters, 51% of Perry’s backers, 50% of Romney voters. Just 43% of Santorum voters and 36% of Gingrich supporters are locked in at this point.

It’s important to note, too, that 66% of all likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, regardless of whom they want to win, think Romney will ultimately win the party’s presidential nomination. Just 11% predict that Santorum will be the GOP nominee, while nine percent (9%) expect Gingrich to triumph. Forty-five percent (45%) say Romney would be the strongest Republican against President Obama versus 18% who feel that way about Gingrich and 16% who say that of Santorum.

Santorum is the best liked of the candidates, with 72% favorables among likely primary voters in the state. Nearly as many (68%) share a favorable opinion of Romney, followed by Gingrich who is viewed favorably by 59%. Fifty percent (50%) like Perry, while 55% have an unfavorable opinion of Paul. Huntsman, too, is viewed more unfavorably than favorably, but 27% of primary voters don’t know enough about him to venture any kind of opinion.

Paul and Huntsman are seen as the two weakest potential GOP candidates against Obama.

Santorum outpolls both Romney and Gingrich two-to-one among Tea Party voters. Romney holds a similar lead over his top two rivals among those who are not part of the movement.

Evangelical Christian voters prefer Santorum over Romney 33% to 17%. But Romney leads among other Protestants, Catholics and voters of other faiths with roughly one-third of the votes from each group.

Even if their personal favorite comes up short in the primary process, just five percent (5%) of Republican primary voters in South Carolina are interested in a third party candidate. Eighty-four percent (84%) plan to stick with the Republican nominee even if their favorite loses the nomination, while six percent (6%) would vote for Obama.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of South Carolina GOP primary voters think it’s at least somewhat likely that their party’s candidate will win the White House in November, with 48% who say it’s Very Likely.

Only nine percent (9%) of these voters even somewhat approve of the job Obama is doing as president.