Poll Watch: CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey 

• Mitt Romney 24% {15%} (11%) [18%] {18%} (20%) [21%] {20%} (22%)
• Sarah Palin 20% {13%} (12%) [12%] {19%} (14%) [18%] {15%} (18%)
• Rudy Giuliani 12% {16%}
• Herman Cain 10% {10%}
• Newt Gingrich 10% {8%} (11%) [14%] {10%} (12%) [15%] {14%} (8%)
• Ron Paul 7% {12%} (7%) [8%] {7%} (7%) [10%] {8%} (8%)
• Michele Bachmann 4% {7%} (5%)
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {5%} (2%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%} (5%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% {1%}
• Rick Santorum 1% {2%} (2%) [3%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {3%} (5%)
• Someone else (vol.) 2% {3%} (3%) [4%] {5%} (7%) [6%] {5%} (8%)
• None/No one (vol.) 2% {5%} (4%) [3%] {4%} (4%) [0%] {5%} (2%)
• No opinion 3% {2%} (1%) [2%] {2%} (6%) [4%] {1%} (3%)

Who would be your second choice?

• Rudy Giuliani 16% {14%}
• Mitt Romney 16% {15%} (14%) [15%] {18%}
• Sarah Palin 13% {10%} (13%) [12%] {19%}
• Ron Paul 12% {7%} (9%) [10%] {8%}
• Tim Pawlenty 9% {6%} (3%) [4%] {5%}
• Newt Gingrich 8% {10%} (12%) [11%] {8%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {10%} (3%)
• Herman Cain 5% {5%}
• Rick Santorum 4% {2%} (0%) [3%] {3%}
• Jon Huntsman 2% {6%}
• Someone else (vol.) 1% {4%} (3%) [2%] {5%}
• None/ No one (vol.) 7% {8%} (4%) [9%] {7%}
• No opinion 0% {2%} (2%) [3%] {4%}

As you may know, a few of the people I just named have not formally announced that they are running for president and may decide not to do so. Regardless of who you support, please tell me whether you would or would not like to see each of the following people run for the Republican nomination for President.

RUDY GIULIANI

• Would like to see run 66%
• Would not like to see run 33%

Among Republicans

• Would like to see run 69%
• Would not like to see run 31%

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Would like to see run 61%
• Would not like to see run 38%

SARAH PALIN

• Would like to see run 54%
• Would not like to see run 44%

Among Republicans

• Would like to see run 58%
• Would not like to see run 40%

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Would like to see run 48%
• Would not like to see run 50%

If Rudy Giuliani doesn't run

• Mitt Romney 28% {19%}
• Sarah Palin 23% {15%}
• Newt Gingrich 11% {11%}
• Herman Cain 10% {11%}
• Ron Paul 10% {13%} 
• Michele Bachmann 5% {7%}
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {5%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% {3%}
• Rick Santorum 1% {2%}
• Someone else (vol.) 2% {6%}
• None/No one (vol.) 3% {6%}
• No opinion 3% {2%}

If neither Rudy Giuliani nor Sarah Palin run

• Mitt Romney 35% {21%}
• Newt Gingrich 16% {12%}
• Ron Paul 13% {15%} 
• Herman Cain 10% {13%}
• Michele Bachmann 7% {9%}
• Tim Pawlenty 4% {5%}
• Jon Huntsman 2% {3%}
• Rick Santorum 1% {3%}
• Someone else (vol.) 2% {8%}
• None/No one (vol.) 8% {9%}
• No opinion 3% {2%}

Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year?

• Mitt Romney 42%
• Sarah Palin 14%
• Rudy Giuliani 12%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Ron Paul 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Herman Cain 3%
• Michele Bachmann 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Rick Santorum 0%
• Someone else (vol.) 1%
• None/ No one (vol.) 2%
• No opinion 8%

Survey of 433 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted June 3-7, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted May 24-26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-10, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 27-30, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.