Thursday, August 23, 2012

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
  • Claire McCaskill (D) 48% [44%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
  • Todd Akin (R) 38% [47%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%) 
  • Some other candidate 9% [4%] (2%) {2%} [4%]
  • Not sure 5% [5%] (7%) {7%} [4%]
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Claire McCaskill
  • Very favorable 19%
  • Somewhat favorable 29%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 12%
  • Very unfavorable 36%
Todd Akin
  • Very favorable 11%
  • Somewhat favorable 24%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 16%
  • Very unfavorable 47%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Claire McCaskill 48% / 48% {0%}
  • Todd Akin 35% / 63% {-28%}
How closely have you followed news stories concerning Todd Akin’s comments about rape?
  • Very closely 64%
  • Somewhat closely 29%
  • Not very closely 5%
  • Not at all 1%
Should Akin withdraw from the campaign and have the Republicans select another candidate to run against Senator Claire McCaskill?
  • 41% Yes
  • 42% No
  • 17% Not sure
Note: Most Republicans (53%) think Akin should quit; most Democrats (56%) do not, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted August 22, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 30, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Male voters are evenly divided between the two candidates, but McCaskill holds a 20-point lead among female voters. Akin has a slight 44% to 40% lead among married voters, but among unmarrieds he now trails by a whopping 70% to 21% margin.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of conservatives continue to support Akin, but 63% of moderates and 93% of liberals favor McCaskill.

Notably, 13% of Republicans now prefer a third party candidate as do 14% of unaffiliated voters. Among Democrats, none now favor a third party option and Democratic support for McCaskill has solidified. She now earns 96% of the vote from her party. Only 70% of Republicans would vote for the current nominee of their party. That’s down from 86% earlier.

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