Monday, November 14, 2011

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
  • Mitt Romney 24% {26%} [22%] (21%) {18%} [23%] (22%)
  • Newt Gingrich 22% {8%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (5%)
  • Herman Cain 14% {25%} [9%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 12% {13%} [30%] (32%) {32%} [18%] (17%)
  • Ron Paul 8% {9%} [7%] (13%) {6%} [14%] (12%)
  • Michele Bachmann 6% {6%} [6%] (7%) {12%} [9%] (14%)
  • Jon Huntsman 3% {1%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% {2%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 1% {1%} [3%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 4% {5%} [5%] (4%) {6%} [5%] (10%)
  • No opinion 4% {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)
  • Newt Gingrich 29% {11%} [9%] (5%) {6%} [5%] (3%) 
  • Herman Cain 22% {39%} [14%] (7%) {2%} [4%] (10%)
  • Mitt Romney 17% {17%} [18%] (16%) {11%} [15%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 12% {10%} [36%] (38%) {37%} [20%] (22%)
  • Ron Paul 8% {9%} [5%] (8%) {5%} [12%] (9%)
  • Michele Bachmann 6% {5%} [3%] (4%) {14%} [11%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% {2%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0% {0%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [4%] (1%)
Tea Party Neutral (MoE: +/-7.0%)
  • Mitt Romney 29% {35%} [24%] (18%) {16%} [18%] (22%)
  • Newt Gingrich 16% {7%} [11%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (4%)
  • Rick Perry 12% {13%} [22%] (22%) {18%} [9%] (5%)
  • Michele Bachmann 9% {8%} [4%] (4%) {6%} [3%] (5%) 
  • Ron Paul 9% {11%} [7%] (13%) {6%} [12%] (6%)
  • Herman Cain 8% {14%} [3%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) 
  • Rick Santorum 2% {1%} [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2% {1%} [2%] (2%) {0%} [2%] (0%)
Among Men (MoE: +/-6.0%)
  • Newt Gingrich 24% {10%} [9%] (6%) {6%} [7%] (4%)
  • Mitt Romney 24% {25%} [18%] (19%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
  • Herman Cain 15% {30%} [9%] (4%) {2%} [5%] (8%)
  • Rick Perry 12% {13%} [35%] (30%) {32%} [13%] (20%)
  • Ron Paul 9% {6%} [6%] (12%) {6%} [17%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 4% {3%} [2%] (5%) {8%} [9%] (13%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% {2%} [2%] (0%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% {1%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [4%] (0%)
Among Women (MoE: +/-7.0%)
  • Mitt Romney 24% {26%} [26%] (16%) {15%} [22%] (15%)
  • Newt Gingrich 20% {6%} [11%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
  • Herman Cain 14% {20%} [6%] (5%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • Rick Perry 12% {14%} [22%] (30%) {23%} [16%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 10% {9%} [7%] (3%) {10%} [4%] (9%) 
  • Ron Paul 7% {13%} [8%] (10%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Jon Huntsman 5% {0%} [0%] (3%) {0%} [4%] (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% {2%} [4%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?
  • Definitely support 31% {33%}
  • Might change mind 61% {67%}
GENERAL ELECTION
  • Mitt Romney 51% [48%] [48%]
  • Barack Obama 47% [49%] [49%]
  • Barack Obama 52% [51%] [51%]
  • Rick Perry 45% [46%] [46%]
  • Barack Obama 53%
  • Newt Gingrich 45%
  • Barack Obama 53%
  • Herman Cain 43%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Mitt Romney 39% / 35% {+4%} 
  • Ron Paul 32% / 34% {-2%}
  • Newt Gingrich 36% / 39% {-3%}
  • Jon Huntsman 16% / 22% {-6%}
  • Rick Santorum 17% / 27% {-10%
  • Herman Cain 29% / 44% {-15%}
  • Michele Bachmann 25% / 43% {-18%}
  • Rick Perry 28% / 47% {-19%}
Among Republicans
  • Newt Gingrich 61% / 21% {+40%}
  • Mitt Romney 55% / 27% {+28%}
  • Herman Cain 47% / 31% {+16%}
  • Michele Bachmann 41% / 33% {+8%}
  • Ron Paul 40% / 32% {+8%}
  • Rick Santorum 30% / 22% {+8%}
  • Rick Perry 43% / 37% {+6%}
  • Jon Huntsman 19% / 22% {-3%}
Survey of 925 registered voters, including a subsample of 480 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted November 11-13, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 4.5 percentage points among GOP primary voters.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 24-25, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses

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